The month is October 2023. The Edmonton Oilers is are a popular Stanley Cup pick. The Edmonton Oilers cannot win a game.
The month is October 2024. The Edmonton Oilers are a popular Stanley Cup pick. The Edmonton Oilers cannot win a game.
But if we squinted closely before the Woodcroft firing last season: the signs of a turnaround were already present. The Oilers led the NHL in almost every 5-on-5 offensive play-driving metric and expected goal share. They were controlling their games. It was only a matter of time before pucks started going in and they caught fire.
This season, after starting 0-3-0 and getting outscored 15-3, the Oilers…lead the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts and scoring chances per 60. They have the have the sixth-lowest expected goals against rate at 5-on-5. Just like a year ago, they remain the same dominant team under the hood. They’re simply snakebitten with a league-low shooting percentage of 3.19 percent.
So we can obviously laugh off most of this horrific start. A team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard is going to start scoring any day now.
But there’s one element to Edmonton’s October thus far that should spike the heart rate a bit. Last season, when they were 2-9-1 and had the league’s best play-driving metrics, they carried the league’s worst save percentage at .860. This season: second-last at .783 through three games. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have been disasters.
Why does it matter to point that out when the sample size is a miniscule three games? Because Skinner in particular has a vice grip on the Oilers’ results over a much larger sample size. If he was even a league-average goaltender last October, Woodcroft probably would’ve kept his job. When Knoblauch received a lot of credit for Edmonton’s surge up the standings – which was reasonably deserved given how much he improved the team’s defensive play – Skinner’s was in the midst of a huge hot streak.
Last season, Edmonton didn’t thud against the bottom of the pit until their record reached 2-9-1 in early November. Jay Woodcroft was fired as head coach one game after that. Kris Knoblauch took the reins, the Oilers surged back into contender status, and none of us will soon forget the team’s run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
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