Blackburn Rovers have had a bit of everything in their opening to the season.
One win, a draw and a defeat, in that order. Five goals scored, the same number conceded. A two-goal fightback and a red card.
Unlike last season, where it took until January for Rovers to draw, fans have been given some variety in their opening trio of games. However, it’s the same verdict across the three matches.
Many would place an asterisk next to any match where you are going down to 10 men after 16 minutes, as Rovers did against Hull last weekend. Competing in any league match with a one-man deficit for 75 minutes is a tall order.
Yet Rovers still created chances and gave the Tigers a fright. They took the lead with a great finish from Sam Gallagher and spurned big chances to go back ahead at 1-1.
ventually, the intensity of being a man light told, with two soft and uncharacteristic concessions with simple balls over the top of the defence. Aynsley Pears was caught in no man’s land for the second with the defence simply too high.
Compare the start to 12 months ago and Rovers have five fewer points, having taken maximum points from their first three games under Tomasson. Yet, many would argue they are in a better position now than before.
Last year, Rovers’ early-season success was born from being clinical in both boxes. The performances were disjointed, as you’d expect under a new head coach with totally new ideas to implement, and it wasn’t sustainable to keep them at the top of the league.
Chance creation was a major issue for Rovers but, as has been throughout 2023, that is no longer an issue. Once again, the underlying numbers reflect Tomasson’s side in a very good light.
Looking at open play expected goals, as per Opta Analyst
Now, Rovers have scored four times, so it’s not a massive underperformance. But when you consider Norwich have notched six times from four xG and Hull have five from 2.67 xG, the league’s highest scorers, there is room for improvement.
You have to consider the game state too. Rovers were 2-0 behind at Rotherham with a man advantage and so, naturally, are going to be applying the pressure. But that is the only time they’ve trailed aside from the last few minutes at Ewood on Saturday.
Big chances have been spurned, whether that be Harry Leonard against West Brom, Niall Ennis against Hull or Sam Szmodics from the spot against Rotherham. It really is obvious what the issue is.
In 2023, Rovers’ style has evolved phenomenally. The pieces fit together, their wide overloads are choreographed and they looked a very slick attacking outfit.
Rovers have created a value of 4.66 in their first three games. Nobody can match that in the entire division, removing set-pieces.
From a coaching point of view, the head coach has done his job. Tomasson’s style is written all over the team, who just need a better number nine.
Of course, this is easy said than done when you consider the summer Rovers have had. Already hamstrung by the need to generate their own transfer budget, the owners’ need to balance funding between on and off-field has made the task even greater.
On the field, though, albeit with a small sample size, the conclusion is clear once again. The new season hasn’t posed many new questions but exposed the glaring ones that Rovers have yet to answer in the transfer market.
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