CLEVELAND, Ohio — After losing The Game to Michigan in the previous season, Ohio State football managed to sneak into the College Football Playoffs by drawing to an inside straight.
Next month, neither of those competitors should anticipate taking a similar route in through the back door. The runner-up in the Big Ten East is starting to look like a lock for one of the four postseason spots.
One spot goes to the SEC champion, who could be either Georgia (11-0) or Alabama (10-1). The two-time defending national champion Bulldogs will still be a better one-loss non-conference champion than either Ohio State or Michigan even if Nick Saban’s team pulls off the upset. This is particularly true if one is more likely to reward a team that did not play for a conference championship than to penalise one for losing one.
The Pac-12 title game will probably become a playoff elimination game if Oregon defeats Oregon State (Ducks -13.5) and Washington defeats Washington State on Saturday (Huskies favoured by 16.5 points). On October 14, Washington defeated Oregon 36–33. However, if the Ducks exact revenge on that defeat, their continuous standing in the top six rankings indicates that the selection committee would view them favourably as conference champions with just one loss.
And will the loser of Ohio State vs Michigan still have a stronger record than Washington with just one loss?
Prior to Jordan Travis’ season-ending ankle injury against North Alabama last Saturday, Florida State looked to be headed for a 13-0 victory. The selection committee will now have to evaluate an ACC champion with a flawless season and a flawed roster going forward, even if the Seminoles continue to win. Selecting a one-loss non-champion over an undefeated conference champion would defy ten years of CFP precedent, particularly if it’s Michigan, who has a less impressive resume than OSU thus far.
You could also argue that FSU is unquestionably in if it defeats Florida and (likely) Louisville in the upcoming two weeks with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker.
If Texas wins its home game against Texas Tech (Longhorns -13.5) on Saturday, it advances to the Big 12 championship game where it will play either Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Kansas State. Last week, each of those teams was also ranked. This is another Power 5 conference that has a chance to win the conference with just one loss, so the committee is essentially left with no choice.
Imagine the following: Florida State 13-0 ACC, Michigan or Ohio State 13-0 Big Ten, Washington 13-0 Pac-12, 12-1 Alabama SEC, and 12-1 Georgia. Alternatively, make Georgia 13-0 and include Big 12 champion Texas 12-1. Alternatively, include Oregon as the Pac-12 champion with a record of 12-1, led by current Heisman Trophy favourite Bo Nix.
One of those five teams will not be able to advance in any of those scenarios, and nobody is even thinking about whether Michigan or OSU will be disappointed to have to settle for a New Year’s Six bowl.
With such high stakes, this is The Game’s final installment. The losing team would be forced to host a first-round playoff match in the newly extended field the following season. We are in for a monster on Saturday when we consider the growing mistrust and animosity between the programmes.
Texas (10-1): The Longhorns’ chance to surpass Oregon on the resume may be long overdue. As of last week, the Ducks’ lone victory on the rankings came against Utah, who was humiliated by Arizona and ought to be eliminated. They can argue for re-entry this week if they defeat Oregon State, but their real route in is a Pac-12 championship game rematch with Washington. Regarding Texas, their victory against Alabama still stands strong after several weeks, and their overtime triumph over Kansas State qualifies as a top-20 victory. Tuesday evening
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