The Toronto Maple Leafs are winning hockey games, which has slowed the media frenzy considerably since its peak two weeks ago.
The problem is that the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t improved at all, and while their fans should be celebrating their victories, their management should be planning ahead of time to patch a very leaky ship.
The Leafs beat the Wild on Sunday, but they blew a two-goal lead and gave up an absurd amount of chances, only to be saved once again by their ability to outscore their problems.
Make no mistake, the Toronto Maple Leafs have three of the top ten offensive players in the world + John Tavares + Morgan Rielly + Matthew Knies + Tyler Bertuzzi, and they have the ability to win games they don’t deserve to quite frequently.
Unfortunately, that is not a long-term winning strategy.
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ early-season issues have not been resolved.
The following is how the Leafs’ recent “season turnaround” played out:
Tampa Bay: After a three-goal comeback, the Leafs won 6-5.
Ottawa: Terrible game, they deserved to lose.
Calgary: A three-goal lead was blown.
Vancouver: Not their worst game, but you’re not going to win many games when you finish with a 44% Expected Goals rating and the opposing team gets 60% of the 5v5 shots.
Detroit: The Leafs had a good game statistically, but they still had to come back from a two-goal deficit to win, and even if they were the greatest comeback team in history (which they aren’t), they would still lose this game more than 90% of the time.
Minnesota: A two-goal lead was blown.
So, to summarize, the Toronto Maple Leafs have won five of their last six games (4-1-1), but in four of those six games, they either blew or recovered from a multi-goal deficit.
They were statistically the better team in only two of those.
To date, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are barely above 50% Expected Goals (the lowest they’ve ever finished a season is 55% in the previous four years), which is very concerning. (naturalstattrick.com).
Only one of their six regular defensemen (Timothy Liljegren) has more than 50% Expected Goals.
The Leafs have the third highest shooting percentage in the NHL, implying that they will score less in the future than they do now.
The Leafs rank 22nd in Expected Goals Percentage (5v5) as a team.
These are all indications that the team’s record is lucky and that their current level of success is not sustainable. There are fundamental problems with this team that, unless they are not corrected, could possibly lead to the team missing the playoffs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have four superstars and on nights when they get good goaltending and score a few goals, they can outpace their problems.
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