If quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye go 1-2 in the NFL Draft and the Minnesota Vikings don’t want to risk losing a quarterback they have eyes on to another team ahead of them, they’re going to have to offer a haul and move up in the draft, possibly into the top five.
The Patriots own the No. 3 pick and could certainly go with a quarterback. They’re a real threat to Minnesota’s hypothetical desires but also a more expensive move up from No. 11.
The Cardinals and Chargers own the fourth and fifth picks, respectively, and both are set at quarterback with Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. That makes them prime trade candidates for Minnesota. But at what cost?
Using a modern version of Jimmy Johnson’s trade chart, the No. 5 pick is worth 1,700 points. To get that pick, the Vikings would need to send the Chargers the No. 11 pick (1,250 points) and more. What’s more? Maybe it’s the 42nd pick in this year’s draft, which is worth 480 points, and then a mid-round pick this year or next year.
So to go from 11 to 5 likely requires Minnesota’s first-, second- and fourth- or fifth-round picks. Maybe the mid-round pick(s) are provided in 2025.
Going from 11 to 4 is only slightly more expensive as the No. 4 pick is worth 1,800 points. But going all the way up to No. 3 is higher-priced with a pick value of 2,200.
Last year, Arizona traded its first- and fourth-round picks (third and 105th overall) to Houston for the 12th and 33rd picks, plus 2024 first- and third-round picks.
Based on the trade chart, the Cardinals’ picks were worth a combined 2,284 points while Houston’s picks totaled 1,780 points in 2023 while their 2024 picks, which because they won a playoff game will be no higher than 25th, could be worth 850+ points.
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Which teams ahead of the Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft need a quarterback?
The Cardinals acquired more pick value but Houston got a chance to draft a franchise quarterback, and selecting C.J. Stroud appears to have paid off big time.
That’s the choice the Vikings have to make.
Going from 11 to 3 in the draft will definitely cost Minnesota the 11th and 42nd picks this year, and probably their first- and third-round picks in 2025. Arizona probably didn’t think Stroud would lead Houston to 10 wins and at least one playoff victory, so their return is likely less than they thought it was going to be when they made the deal.
If Minnesota were to pull off a similar trade, the Patriots could be cashing in because Minnesota’s roster is filled with holes. There’s no guarantee that Jayden Daniels or a different rookie quarterback will do what Stroud did, which means the Vikings could be on the fast track to a top-10 pick in 2025, which would have the Patriots salivating.
But so it goes for teams trying to find a franchise quarterback.
Making matters more complicated is Minnesota lack of picks in 2024. The Vikings don’t have a third-round pick, so moving up in the draft is likely going to mean they select their hopeful franchise quarterback and then sit around waiting until the fourth or fifth round to make another pick.
If Minnesota isn’t partial to a quarterback, they could stay put and hope a quarterback they like, perhaps Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. or someone else, is available when they go on the clock at 11 or 42.
Of course, all of this is a little less relevant if the Vikings bring back Kirk Cousins and further delay a decision on their future franchise quarterback.
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