I field a lot of questions about sleepers this time of year, from fantasy baseball players hoping to get an advantage over rivals in the upcoming season to fans pining for the next big thing on their favorite MLB team. So let’s see who the best breakthrough prospect is among all 30 clubs.
A breakout season is defined differently by me than merely “beating last year’s WAR,” as selecting young players who are developing into starters is a very simple way to achieve that goal. I’m selecting players under 30 who, in my opinion, will surpass their predicted WAR by at least a half-win, based on projections from FanGraphs for playing time and quality of performance. Therefore, this is more than just a list of the best prospects and future stars.
Thomas, a former top-100 talent, struggled to get off to a fast start in the major leagues. For a quick player, he underperformed his xwOBA in each of his first two seasons, but after posting impressive results in the 2023 playoffs and 2024 spring training, he is on the rise. Although there appears to be a strong uptrend in the estimates, I believe he will surpass that figure.Similar experiences in the big leagues have been enjoyed by Brandon Pfaadt, who appears to be improving as well.
Austin Riley is a very decent pick in this case (the projection calls for defensive regression following a dramatic improvement in 2023), and I have a strong suspicion that Jarred Kelenic or Adam Duvall will outperform their estimate, but I’m not sure which one. The Braves’ Smith-Shawver
The other two strong candidates here are infielders waiting for a big league spot to open: Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday. There’s a deep group of infielders on the big league roster (another decent breakout pick in Jordan Westburg is one of them). Holliday then Mayo seems like the call-up hierarchy, but it isn’t clear when those call-ups will happen. I think the first base/designated hitter/corner outfield spots are easier to project a shift in playing time, and Cowser, coming off a blazing-hot spring, would be the first one in line to get that playing time.
Brayan Bello is another decent option, but Casas is the best one here. He’s still just 24 years old, and the projections are already counting on very little positional, defensive and baserunning value, so just staying healthy and being a bit better at the plate than last year (he was a touch unlucky at the plate in 2023, actually) is all that’s needed.
There are several contenders here, but the majority are contingent on how much the Cubs allow their young players to play. Is Michael Busch capable of staying a platoon DH all season? Pete Crow-Armstrong is coming up to stay when? This season, will Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, or Cade Horton receive a longer look in the major leagues?These possible young upstarts are somewhat tied to Mike Tauchman and Jordan Wicks; will those two maintain their current positions throughout the season? — but I’d prefer to hope Suzuki keeps getting better. After a stellar spring and 3.2 WAR the previous season, hitting within 10% of that total would be a success with this selection, since the projections point to impending defensive decline.
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