The Royals have a real shot

This offseason, the Kansas City Royals wanted to compete in 2024. Not in the technical sense of the word; the 2023 Royals technically competed in every game by rote definition despite rarely being competitive. No, the Royals wanted to win games late in the year, to energize a fanbase, and to vie for the American League Central crown.

Coming off a 106-loss season, that sounded silly on its face. But the Royals banked on a few things. One, that they were getting Vinnie Pasquantino back (alongside Cole Ragans beginning the year in Kansas City as opposed to in Texas). Two, that Bobby Witt Jr. was likely to further refine his game. Three, that aggression in free agency would significantly beef up their pitching strength and overall depth. Four, that the AL Central was a weak division with no runaway favorite. And five, that the 2023 squad was an incredibly unlucky one with a higher true talent than their 56 wins would suggest.

With 19 games in the books, every single one of those hopes has thus far proven true. Vinnie and Ragans have been incredible. Witt has put in his best Alex Rodriguez impression. The pitching depth is night and day from last year. And only the Cleveland Guardians have proven competent.

The result? The Royals have a real shot to win the AL Central now. I know, I know, that sounds like a Royals fan being an unreasonable homer. But remember—I didn’t think the Royals had it in them! As a reminder, I predicted the Royals to win 74 games this year, which is just not enough to make the playoffs.

Fortunately for the Royals, they’ve done well enough, and the other AL teams have struggled enough, for projection systems to get on board with the idea. Fangraphs, in fact, projects the Royals to finish with 81 wins—the same amount that they project the Guardians and the Twins to accrue.