With April having come to a close, we are a full month-plus into the 2024 season — which means the events of the past month are worth analyzing. Sure, it’s just one month into a six-month regular season, but plenty of trends have already begun to take shape.
Let’s take a look at current division leaders and try to project what the postseason field could look like come October. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first (or last) place on May 1
Since 1996 — the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the strike that began in 1994 — 83 of 162 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering May. That’s 51 percent of division winners.
Take note, Orioles, Guardians, Mariners, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers fans — those teams are our current division leaders.
Last season, three of the six division winners had a share of that lead on May 1. In the American League, the Twins won the Central, while the Rays and Rangers, who led the East and West, respectively, did not – but both did make it as Wild Cards. In the NL, the Braves won the East, but the Pirates, who led the Central entering May, did not, missing the playoffs entirely. The Dodgers and D-backs were tied for the West lead. The Dodgers won the division, and the D-backs were a Wild Card.
Since 1996, 16 of the 27 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering May. The Rangers did so in ‘23, despite not ultimately winning the AL West.
This year, however, the now-defending champion Rangers are not in first place entering May. How rare is that? Not as rare as you might think. Of each of the 27 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in April the next year, including these Rangers, just nine have found themselves in first place through April that subsequent year. The last reigning World Series winners to be in first entering May were the 2018 Astros.
What about the last-place teams? There’s plenty of season left, and it’s worth keeping up hope. The last team to be in last place entering May and go on to make the playoffs was the 2021 Yankees, who were a Wild Card. The last teams to be in last place entering May and go on to win their divisions were the 2015 Blue Jays and Rangers. Overall since 1996, 12 teams have had at least a share of last place in a division, then gone on to make the playoffs that season. Of those, six were division winners and six were Wild Cards.
This year’s leaders
Of this year’s current NL division leaders, each has had at least a share of that lead entering May at least one other time since the start of 2022. The AL is a different story. Cleveland was last in this spot in ‘18, the Orioles in ‘17 and Mariners in 2009.
Each of the current leaders has won its division at least once since 2022 – except for the Mariners, who last did so in 2001.
What’s next
There’s plenty of baseball yet to be played, but fans of the six current division leaders can take some solace in the fact that historically, about half of those teams will go on to win those divisions. And for fans of non-leading teams? Well, just about 50/50 means there’s plenty of room for a different team to take these division crowns, too.
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